What Is a 'Super El Niño'? The Phenomenon That Could Bring Extreme Heat to Spain This Summer

Could a 'Super El Niño' Be On Its Way?

A possible "super El Niño" is raising concerns that this summer could bring extreme heat to Spain. Experts say there is a strong chance the climate pattern known as El Niño will develop in the coming months, with early signs suggesting it could be particularly powerful.

If that happens, it could push global temperatures higher by around 0.2°C on average, intensifying extreme weather events across the world.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is part of a natural weather pattern linking the ocean and atmosphere, known as an ENSO cycle (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). It occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.

The opposite effect is known as La Niña, which is still weakly present in the Pacific. This led to a temporary lowering of global temperatures, meaning 2025 was cooler than 2024 — the hottest year on record.

Even relatively small changes in ocean temperature can have a major impact on precipitation, drought, heat and climate disasters. During El Niño, weakened trade winds allow warm water to spread eastwards, altering rainfall, storm patterns and temperatures worldwide.

What Makes It a 'Super' El Niño?

A "super El Niño" is simply a stronger version of the same phenomenon, usually defined by temperatures rising at least 2°C above average in the key Pacific monitoring regions. These events are rare but far more disruptive.

The last sustained super El Niño took place in 2015–16. Scientists estimate there is around a one-in-four chance of such an event developing later this year, although forecasts made in spring can still change as conditions evolve.

How It Affects Weather Patterns

El Niño has a powerful effect on the atmosphere, shifting jet streams and flipping weather patterns. Some regions see intense rainfall and storms, while others face drought and prolonged heat.

Current models suggest a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge this summer and persist through until at least the end of 2026.

What It Could Mean for Spain

An El Niño event doesn't guarantee Spain will see its hottest summer on record, but it does increase the likelihood of above-average heat during the summer months.

However, the impact may be felt most acutely later in the year, with El Niño linked to harsher winters across Europe — including in Spain and the UK.

For residents and expats, this is one to watch. If the super El Niño materialises, it could shape weather conditions well into 2027.

This article is based on reporting from The Olive Press, published April 19, 2026. Climate forecasts are subject to change — check official meteorological sources for the latest updates.