Could 2026 Be Another Catastrophic Wildfire Year for Spain?

A Troubling Start to the Year

Spain has already burned through nearly 13,000 hectares in the first three months of 2026 — more than double the roughly 6,000 hectares affected during the same period in 2025. Ministry data confirms 2026 ranks as the fifth-worst start in the past decade for land lost to forest fires.

The first-quarter figure sits 29.6 per cent below the ten-year average, which provides some perspective — but it also means the comparison year is an already-elevated baseline. The concern is not so much what has happened so far, but what conditions are shaping up for the months ahead.

Where the Fires Have Hit

Of the 1,568 wildfires recorded in the first quarter of 2026:

• 864 were classed as small fires under one hectare
• No major fires exceeding 500 hectares have been recorded in provisional figures — a relative bright spot
• Northwest Spain accounted for 60% of all incidents and 89% of forest area lost
• Mediterranean zones registered 12% of events and 44% of woodland damage

In terms of what burned: 998 hectares of woodland, 7,836 hectares of scrub and open land, and 4,113 hectares of pasture and meadow.

The Shadow of 2025

To understand the anxiety around 2026, it helps to look at what happened in 2025. The full-year total reached 354,746 hectares burned — triple the decade average and the highest annual total in ten years. That season was driven by intense and repeated heatwaves, and it left the landscape scarred and communities on edge.

The cruel irony of 2026 is that the unusually heavy rainfall of January — which brought flooding to parts of Spain — also triggered rapid and prolific undergrowth growth. That lush vegetation, now drying out under forecast heat, will create abundant fuel for fires as summer approaches. A wet spring setting up a dangerous summer is a well-known pattern in fire science.

El Niño and What It Means for This Summer

Climate models are pointing to a strong El Niño developing through to the end of summer 2026. For Spain, this typically means:

• Prolonged heat domes over the peninsula
• Hot African airflows pushing north
• Reduced rainfall, particularly across Andalusia and inland areas

European forecasting agencies are already flagging very high fire danger for the Mediterranean region based on comparable El Niño years. Combined with ongoing rural land abandonment — which leaves landscapes overgrown and unmanaged — the conditions are coming together in a concerning way.

What Residents and Expats in High-Risk Areas Can Do

If you live in a rural or semi-rural area of Spain — particularly in the northwest, Andalusia, or the Mediterranean interior — there are practical steps worth taking before peak fire season arrives:

• Clear vegetation within 30 metres of your property — this is not just advice, it is a legal requirement in many municipalities and is the single most effective protection for your home
• Fit fire-resistant materials to roofs, gutters and vents where possible
• Check AEMET's daily risk maps during summer — these are publicly available and updated regularly
• Know your local emergency number and the location of your nearest evacuation route

Local authorities such as INFOCA (Andalusia's firefighting agency) are expanding planned burning programmes in 2026 — controlled burns designed to reduce fuel loads before summer — and early spring preparation is consistently cited by fire experts as the most cost-effective defence.

A Manageable Risk — If Taken Seriously

None of this is to say 2026 is certain to repeat 2025. No fire season ever is. But the combination of elevated early-year burn figures, lush undergrowth from winter rainfall, a developing El Niño, and the memory of last year's record season makes this a summer to watch carefully — especially for those living outside Spain's major cities.

This article is based on reporting from Euro Weekly News, published April 26, 2026, drawing on Spanish Ministry of Agriculture fire data and AEMET climate forecasts.