Spain's Tourism Set for €194 Million Boost From Iran War 'Refuge Effect' — But Rising Costs Could Eat the Gains

The Numbers Behind the 'Refuge Effect'

Spain's tourism sector is heading into spring with cautious optimism. Industry group Exceltur says the war in Iran is bringing more visitors looking for safer, closer holiday options — the so-called "refuge effect" — with travellers shifting away from the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East.

But the headline numbers tell a more complicated story:

• Extra income from stronger demand: €4.329 billion
• Losses from higher prices and costs: €4.045 billion
• Net benefit: just €194 million

In other words, almost all of the tourism windfall is being eaten up by the rising cost of doing business.

Tourism Growth: 2.5% for 2026

Overall, Exceltur forecasts 2.5% growth in tourism this year, with the sector expected to contribute 12.8% of national GDP. Growth should be strongest from May onwards, with particular intensity during the summer months.

Regional Winners

The regions with the strongest spring outlook:

• Castilla-La Mancha — strongest growth
• Extremadura
• Valencian Community
• Murcia — sales growth of 6.3%
• Balearic Islands

Andalucía, Catalonia, Galicia and Madrid are also expected to grow, but at a more moderate pace.

Hotels Winning, Transport Losing

Hotels are among the biggest winners. Sun and beach destinations are seeing booking growth of up to 5.2% for spring, while overall hotel sales are expected to rise by 4.6%. City hotels are also positive, though less strongly.

By contrast, transport companies face the biggest pressure, with sales expected to fall by 1.6% over the next three months due to weaker rail demand and disrupted routes to Asia.

Operating Costs Surging

The real squeeze is on margins. Operating costs have risen sharply:

• Oil: +9%
• Energy: +8.1%
• Supplies: +7%

Even as demand improves, businesses are deeply concerned about the impact on profitability.

'War Is the Worst Enemy of Tourism'

Exceltur's vice president Óscar Perelli del Amo stressed that the positive outlook only holds if the conflict remains limited in duration and geography.

"War is the worst enemy of tourism," he warned, adding that companies are deeply concerned about rising costs in transport, energy and supplies.

The first quarter brought solid signs of recovery — tourism GDP was up 2.1% year-on-year and sector sales rose 4% between January and March. But whether that momentum can be sustained depends entirely on what happens next in the Middle East.

This article is based on reporting from Spanish News Today, published April 10, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only.