Iran War Market Impact: Spain's IBEX Drops 8% — The Winners and Losers

A Historic Sell-Off

Global markets have been rocked by the Iran conflict, and Spain's benchmark stock index has not been spared. The IBEX 35 has plunged almost 8% since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28 — a sharp and sustained decline that has sent shockwaves through investors and triggered a broad reassessment of risk across asset classes.

The downturn is part of a wider global story. China's stock market is down 3%, Japan's has fallen 12%, and Europe's Euro Stoxx 50 has dropped almost 10% — its steepest monthly fall since the COVID-19 crash. Almost all sectors have suffered, with even traditional safe havens such as gold and sovereign debt failing to provide the protection investors expected.

Oil: The Standout Winner

The conflict's most dramatic market effect has been on energy prices. Brent crude has climbed from $72 per barrel on February 27 to nearly $120 for May delivery — a historic monthly increase of over 60%. The June contract has eased slightly to around $104 per barrel, offering some relief to jittery investors but still representing an extraordinary shift in a matter of weeks.

The surge is directly linked to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world's oil passes. With tanker traffic halted and refineries in the region damaged by Iranian drone strikes, the supply shock has been immediate and severe.

Winners on the IBEX and Euro Stoxx

Not every sector has suffered. In Spain, the following companies have been among the standout performers since the conflict began:

• Enagás — up between 5% and 12%, benefiting from surging gas demand and the strategic value of Spain's LNG infrastructure
• Solaria — up between 5% and 12%, as the crisis renews focus on renewable energy independence
• Endesa — up between 5% and 12%, boosted by rising energy prices and utility sector demand
• Puig and Logista — both managed to avoid monthly losses, supported by corporate-level factors

Across the broader Euro Stoxx 600, chemicals (+2.6%) and utilities (+2%) have shown resilience, supported by rising demand for alternative energy and chemical feedstocks.

Losers: Airlines, Steel, Pharma and Real Estate

The sectors most exposed have been those hit hardest by rising energy costs and interest rate fears:

• IAG (International Airlines Group, owner of Iberia and British Airways) — down 15–25%, hammered by soaring jet fuel costs and route cancellations
• ArcelorMittal — down 15–25%, reflecting weakness in the steel market as industrial activity slows
• Indra — down 15–25%, affected by failed acquisition activity
• Grifols — down 15–25%, hit by pharmaceutical sector volatility

Real estate stocks have been among the worst performers across Europe, falling around 7%, as the sector is particularly sensitive to the prospect of interest rate hikes that central banks might deploy to combat the inflation triggered by surging energy prices.

Safe Havens Have Failed

One of the more surprising aspects of the sell-off has been the failure of traditional crisis assets to hold their value.

Sovereign bonds have fallen sharply, particularly short-term debt, amid fears that central banks may be forced to respond to energy-driven inflation with rate hikes. Long-term yields have risen by 0.3–0.5 percentage points: Spain's 10-year yield is now at 3.5%, Germany's at 3%, and the US at 4.3%.

Gold has also underperformed. After reaching near $5,500 an ounce in January, it has fallen back to just above $4,600 — a reflection of investors cashing in on last year's extraordinary gains (gold rose 70% in 2025) before potential rate hikes erode the metal's appeal further. Silver has fallen even more sharply, down 20%.

What Happens Next

Market optimism now hinges on hopes for an early end to the conflict — but with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively blocked, a rapid resolution is far from certain.

Adolfo Monclús, director of Asset Management at EDM, warns that the current environment is particularly volatile: "The volatility of political decisions creates fertile ground for market reactions. The fear of missing out on a big rebound is also very powerful" — meaning markets could swing sharply in either direction depending on diplomatic developments.

For investors with exposure to Spanish or European equities, the key variables to watch are the status of Hormuz negotiations, the trajectory of Brent crude, and any signals from the Federal Reserve or ECB about interest rate intentions in response to the energy-driven inflation spike.

This article is based on reporting from The Olive Press, published April 1, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always seek professional financial advice before making investment decisions.