Spain Set for Hotter Than Usual May to July, According to Aemet

A Warmer Summer Is on the Way — But Not Immediately

After an unsettled and at times chaotic start to 2026 — storms, rain and four seasons in a single week — there is finally a clearer picture forming for the months ahead. Spain is expected to see higher than average temperatures between May and July, according to the State Meteorological Agency, Aemet, whose three-month forecast was published on Monday, May 4.

The outlook covers the period bridging late spring and early summer, and while warmer conditions are the dominant trend, some areas will also see more rain than usual.

Temperature Probabilities by Region

The likelihood of above-average warmth varies by region:

• Cantabrian region and Mediterranean coast — approximately 60% chance of temperatures sitting above the seasonal average
• Rest of mainland Spain — around 50% probability of above-average temperatures
• Canary Islands — approximately 40% chance of above-average warmth

Rainfall — More Uncertain

Aemet was more cautious on rainfall, noting that longer-range precipitation forecasts carry higher uncertainty. That said, there is a 40% chance of above-average rainfall in the northeast and eastern parts of Spain, as well as in both the Balearic and Canary Islands. For the rest of mainland Spain, no strong trend has been identified.

What "Hotter Than Normal" Actually Means

Aemet clarified that the baseline "normal" refers to average values recorded between 1991 and 2020 — not a promise of steady, predictable weather. Even within a warmer-than-usual period, cooler spells and occasional hot bursts are still to be expected. It's not yet time to permanently pack away the layers.

For residents and visitors on the Costa Blanca and across Mediterranean Spain, the direction of travel is clear: the mixed spring conditions will ease, and a warmer summer is coming. It just hasn't quite arrived yet.

This article is based on reporting from Spanish News Today, published May 5, 2026.