What Will the Weather Be Like in Spain This Easter 2026?

AEMET's Outlook for Semana Santa

Spain's national meteorological agency, AEMET, has given its early forecast for Easter week — March 29 to April 6, 2026 — and the picture is broadly encouraging for those planning to travel or spend the holiday outdoors, particularly in southern and western Spain.

The agency's summary is cautiously optimistic: "It will be a week with little rainfall in most of the west and south." However, AEMET has been careful to note the limits of forecasting accuracy at this range — predicting weather more than a week in advance carries inherent uncertainty, and the picture could shift as Easter approaches.

For now, here is what the models are showing.

The South and West: Mostly Dry

The best conditions are expected across southern and western Spain — good news for the regions that attract the largest numbers of tourists and expats during Semana Santa. Andalusia, Extremadura, and much of the Mediterranean coast from Alicante southward are forecast to see predominantly dry, settled weather through most of the week.

For the large expat communities along the Costa Blanca and Costa del Sol, this is a positive outlook — though with the caveat that isolated showers remain possible, particularly toward the middle of the week.

The North and East: Some Rain Likely

The picture is less settled further north and in some eastern areas. AEMET is forecasting:

• Cantabrian coast — isolated showers likely, consistent with the region's typically wetter Atlantic weather patterns
• Pyrenees — some precipitation expected, potentially including snow at altitude
• Balearic Islands — a higher probability of rain than the mainland, with showers possible during the week
• Ebro Valley — increased rainfall probability compared to the south and west

The period around April 2nd and 3rd (midway through Easter week) looks the most uncertain, with meteorologists flagging a higher probability of scattered showers across a wider area, including parts of the Mediterranean coast, Extremadura, and Andalusia.

Temperatures: Slightly Below Average

Temperatures during Easter week are expected to run slightly below the national average for this time of year — particularly across Spain's northern half. Forecasts by region:

• Madrid, Bilbao, Zamora — around 15°C
• South-western and eastern coastal regions — 18–20°C, providing pleasantly warm spring conditions

These are daytime highs — mornings and evenings will be noticeably cooler, particularly in inland areas and in the north. Layering remains the practical approach for Easter week travel across most of Spain.

Historical Context: Rain at Easter Is Normal in Spain

It is worth keeping a sense of perspective on the Easter weather question. Historically, rain falls somewhere in Spain during Holy Week in 70–80% of years across much of the country. The Semana Santa processions that are central to the cultural life of cities like Seville, Málaga, Murcia, and Cartagena are — paradoxically — most at risk of disruption in a statistically normal year.

A forecast of "broadly dry in the south" for Easter 2026 is therefore genuinely good news by historical standards. Perfect sunshine across the whole country for the full eight days would be the exception, not the rule.

Looking Ahead: A Warm Spring Overall?

Beyond Easter week, AEMET's seasonal outlook for spring is more optimistic on temperatures. Meteorologists estimate a 50–70% probability that temperatures through spring will exceed normal levels across most of Spain, depending on region. The Balearic Islands carry the highest probability of above-average temperatures, at around 70%.

This aligns with the broader European seasonal forecast, which points toward warmer-than-average spring conditions across much of southern Europe — welcome news after a winter that brought significant cold spells and the disruption of Storm Therese to the Canary Islands in late March.

Practical Tips for Easter Week in Spain

• Check the forecast closer to the date — AEMET updates its detailed regional forecasts daily, and the picture will sharpen considerably in the final 3–4 days before Easter. Check aemet.es for the most current information
• Book indoor options as backup — even in the south, having a plan B for a rainy afternoon is sensible during Easter week
• Expect higher traffic and prices — Easter is one of Spain's peak domestic travel periods. Roads, airports, and popular destinations will be busy regardless of the weather
• Pack layers — even if daytime temperatures reach 18–20°C on the coast, evenings can be cool, particularly if cloud cover increases mid-week

Easter weather forecast based on AEMET modelling published in March 2026. Forecasts at this range carry uncertainty and should be checked closer to the date at aemet.es. This article is based on reporting from The Local Spain and is for informational purposes only.