Up to 3.5 Million Jobs at Risk in Spain as AI Revolution Gathers Pace

A Warning from Spain's Leading Economic Think-Tank

A new report from Funcas — the research foundation of Spain's savings banks and one of the country's most respected economic think-tanks — has projected that between 700,000 and 3.5 million jobs could be lost in Spain to artificial intelligence by 2035. The findings, first reported by El Mundo, paint a sobering picture of the decade ahead for Spanish workers, particularly those in white-collar and professional roles.

Three Scenarios — None of Them Net Positive

The Funcas report models three scenarios:

• Optimistic: 700,000 jobs lost, 600,000 created — a net loss of around 100,000
• Moderate: 1.7–2.3 million jobs lost, 1.6 million created — a net loss of around 600,000
• Worst-case: 3.5 million jobs lost, 1.6 million created — a net loss of approximately 2 million, equivalent to roughly 10% of Spain's current workforce

A striking finding cuts across all three: in every scenario, AI creates fewer jobs than it destroys. The debate is not whether Spain will experience net job losses, but how severe those losses will be.

Who Is Most at Risk

The roles most exposed are those involving data handling, analysis, reporting and information processing — precisely the areas where AI tools are advancing fastest:

• Technicians and scientific professionals — approximately 900,000 losses projected
• Administrative and support roles
• Accounting staff
• Mid-level managers
• Customer service staff
• Analysts and data handlers
• Marketing professionals
• Report writers and information processors

Where the Protection Lies

Not all sectors face equal exposure. The report identifies tourism and hospitality, construction and care services as the most resilient — roles requiring physical presence, human interaction, and on-the-ground judgment that AI cannot readily replicate. This is directly relevant to Spain's economic profile: the country's outsized reliance on tourism provides a structural buffer that more industrialised economies like Germany or the Netherlands do not have.

Spain's exposure is described as slightly above OECD averages overall but lower than more industrial economies. Southern Europe's service-driven model slows outright job replacement, though it increases the likelihood of partial automation within existing roles — workers who keep their jobs but find significant portions of their tasks handled by AI tools.

The Skills Gap — a Window of Opportunity

One finding cuts against the bleakest reading of the report: 78% of Spanish companies currently struggle to find workers with adequate digital skills. This persistent shortage means that workers who can adapt and reskill may find opportunities even as their current roles are automated.

A further 20% of Spanish firms have already integrated AI into daily operations — a figure that is only going to grow. Meanwhile, between 2.8 and 3.5 million workers are expected to experience productivity gains from AI rather than outright displacement, particularly in the services sector.

Across Europe more broadly, research suggests up to 60% of roles could see some tasks automated — not necessarily full job elimination, but a significant transformation in what those jobs involve day-to-day.

What This Means in Practice

For workers and expats in Spain, the picture is one of gradual but accelerating change rather than sudden collapse. The roles most at risk are those that have historically provided stable middle-class employment — analysts, administrators, support staff and technicians. The roles most protected are those requiring human presence, care and judgment.

The single most valuable step for workers in exposed sectors, the report implies, is investment in digital skills — not because it will prevent all disruption, but because the companies most desperate to hire are those looking for people who can work alongside AI rather than be replaced by it.

This article is based on reporting from The Olive Press, published May 2, 2026, drawing on a Funcas report first covered by El Mundo.