Iran War Set to Draw More Tourists to 'Refuge' Spain This Summer — Despite Higher Costs

The 'Refuge Effect'

A new report by Spain's tourism alliance Exceltur predicts that more international visitors will choose Spain this summer due to concerns over travelling to or via the Middle East — even though the Iran conflict is making Spanish holidays more expensive.

Exceltur calls it the "refuge effect" — Spain's appeal and safety drawing travellers who might otherwise have gone elsewhere. But the alliance also warns that rising prices could mean only wealthier visitors can afford to come, pricing out many families.

Tourism GDP Up 2.5%

Exceltur estimates that tourism GDP will grow by 2.5% this year — above the 2.4% forecast in January and the 2.1% recorded in 2025. Tourism is expected to contribute 15.9% to Spain's economic growth in 2026.

"We are seeing bookings to Spain and bookings from Spaniards within Spain. This will happen in the second quarter and especially towards the summer," said Exceltur's executive vice president Óscar Perelli.

Where the Growth Will Be Strongest

• Castilla-La Mancha — +8.2%
• Extremadura — +7.8%
• Valencia — +7.7%
• Murcia — +6.3%
• Balearic Islands — +6%
• Canary Islands, Andalucía, Catalonia — more moderate growth of +1.1% to +2.7%

But Costs Are Rising Fast

The report warns that "the sharp increase in costs that has begun to impact the profit and loss accounts of tourism companies is a major concern."

Key cost pressures:

• Volotea has cancelled flights until end of April and reserves the right to add a 10% surcharge on tickets if fuel costs keep rising
• Ryanair and Lufthansa are considering reducing routes and have warned of higher ticket prices
• Air France and KLM have raised round-trip prices by around €50 on average
• Aena has raised airport fees, with airlines expected to pass the cost to passengers
• Tourist accommodation this Easter was 1.5% more expensive than last year
• Barcelona's tourist tax increase means staying in the city now costs up to €15 more per night

What This Means

For residents and expats in Spain, the summer tourism boom could mean busier beaches and more crowded restaurants — but also a stronger local economy. For anyone planning to fly in or out, the message is clear: book early, expect to pay more, and keep an eye on airline announcements about route cuts and surcharges.

This article is based on reporting from The Local Spain, published April 10, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only.