Airlines Could Start Going Bankrupt Within Weeks, Dubai Billionaire Warns

A Crisis That Feels Like Covid

A Dubai-based billionaire has warned that airlines could begin going bankrupt within weeks as the Middle East conflict sends shockwaves through the global aviation industry, with bookings collapsing and fuel costs surging to levels not seen since before the pandemic.

Gediminas Ziemelis, founder of Avia Solutions Group, told Bloomberg that the current crisis feels like a repeat of Covid — grounded planes, collapsing demand and no clear timeline for recovery.

"We need to be ready for any area, district, jurisdiction and geopolitical risk," said Ziemelis. "If it lasts more than one month, we may see potential first bankruptcies" of airlines around the world.

Soaring Fuel Costs

The warning comes as fuel costs surge, placing intense pressure on carriers already dealing with disrupted routes. Ziemelis noted that fuel typically accounts for around 25% of an airline's operating costs — and since the conflict began, oil prices have jumped nearly 50% to around $100 a barrel.

As a result, some airlines are introducing additional fuel surcharges, while others are cutting routes altogether. There are also growing concerns about the availability of jet fuel, with supply chains from the Middle East severely disrupted.

Rerouting, Cancellations and Empty Seats

Airlines are being forced to reroute flights to avoid large parts of the Middle East, increasing journey times and costs significantly. Carriers in Europe and Asia have already raised ticket prices and reduced destinations as the war enters its fifth week.

Airlines based in the Middle East have been hit hardest, with thousands of flights cancelled as missile and drone attacks disrupt the region. Companies including Qatar Airways, Gulf Air, flydubai and Air Arabia are conducting internal reviews to cut costs and preserve cash as they lose millions of dollars in revenue every day.

The impact is visible. Photos and videos circulating on social media show rows of vacant seats on planes headed to Dubai, with one caption reading: "I've never seen an empty Emirates flight."

Bookings Down 63%

The broader travel picture is stark. Bookings across the region are down 63%, average nightly hotel room rates have fallen 28%, and cancellation rates are up 163%. Destinations like Dubai — once a bustling hub for British expats, tourists and international business — have been reduced to ghost towns, with residents and visitors scrambling to leave.

Crisis Can Also Create Opportunity

Despite the grim outlook, Ziemelis pointed to the aviation sector's recovery after Covid as a reminder that crises can also create opportunities for those who survive them.

"After Covid, all companies which survived made extraordinary record profits. So sometimes crisis is opportunity," he told Bloomberg.

For now, however, the industry is in survival mode — and for travellers with flights booked to or through the Middle East, the advice remains to check with airlines directly and monitor the situation closely.

This article is based on reporting from the Daily Mail, published April 2, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or travel advice.