Schools Shut, GDP Down 20%: What Spain Would Look Like Without Immigration by 2075

Spain's Bet on Immigration — and What the Alternative Looks Like

Unlike many of its European neighbours, Spain is taking a notably pro-immigration stance. In January, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez unveiled a plan to regularise around half a million undocumented immigrants and asylum seekers, reigniting the national debate over the role of migrants in Spanish society.

Now, a major new government report has tried to answer that question in hard numbers — and the projections make for striking reading.

The report, Spain Facing the Migration Challenge: Two Possible Scenarios, was published by the National Office for Foresight and Strategy. It examines two contrasting futures: one where immigration continues at broadly current levels, and one where long-term inflows fall by 30%. Both scenarios are projected out to 2075.

Population: 55 Million or 40 Million?

The headline finding is dramatic. Under the baseline scenario — steady migration — Spain's population could grow to 55 million people by 2075. If immigration falls significantly, the country could shrink to just 40 million — a loss of around 10 million people compared to today's population of approximately 48 million.

The working-age population (16–64 year-olds) tells a similar story. The baseline scenario projects around 33 million working-age people; the low-migration scenario, just 24 million — a shortfall of nine million workers.

Economic Impact: €18,000 Less Per Person

Fewer workers would directly hit the economy. The report projects that a sustained drop in migration could shrink Spain's GDP by over 20% by 2075 and leave each resident around €18,000 worse off in real terms.

The sectors most exposed to a labour shortfall are those that already rely most heavily on migrant workers: agriculture, hospitality, and education.

Agriculture: 220,000 Farms Gone

Spain is one of Europe's largest agricultural producers, and its farms are heavily dependent on migrant labour for harvesting. Under the low-migration scenario, the report warns that over 220,000 farms — roughly three in ten — could disappear by 2075. The knock-on effect would be a significant increase in the cost of fruit and vegetables for Spanish consumers.

Hospitality: Half of Spain's Bars and Restaurants Closed

The hospitality sector faces an equally stark picture. The report projects that nearly half of Spain's bars and restaurants — around 90,000 establishments — could be forced to close under a low-migration scenario, fundamentally reshaping Spain's renowned food and tourism offer.

Education: 50,000 Classrooms Empty

Perhaps the most surprising projection concerns schools. Foreign students already account for over one million pupils — 12% of all children in compulsory education — and play a crucial role in sustaining schools in regions where the native population is shrinking.

If immigration falls, the report projects that by 2075 Spain could lose 32,000 primary school classrooms and 18,000 secondary school classrooms, forcing widespread school restructuring and closures.

'Empty Spain': Rural Towns Becoming Ghost Towns

Lower immigration would also intensify the already serious España Vaciada — "Empty Spain" — trend, in which rural towns and villages lose population to cities and emigration. With fewer immigrants and an ageing native population, the report warns that sparsely populated regions could teeter on the edge of becoming ghost towns.

By 2075, the provinces of Huesca, Soria, and Teruel could lose 28% of their population under the low-migration scenario, and nearly 2,300 towns may be abandoned entirely.

The Bigger Picture

The report's central message is that Spain's demographic trajectory — like that of most Southern European countries — makes migration not merely a political choice but an economic necessity. An ageing native population, low birth rates, and heavy labour demand in key sectors mean that the workforce of 2075 depends, in large part, on decisions made about immigration policy today.

Whether the projected scale of those effects materialises will depend on many factors — not least how Spain's immigration and integration policies develop over the coming decades, and how European and global migration patterns shift in response to climate change, geopolitical instability, and economic inequality.

What the report makes clear is that the cost of getting those decisions wrong — in either direction — is very large indeed.

This article is based on reporting from The Olive Press, published March 28, 2026. This article is for informational purposes only.